Synopsis of Dr. Mordechai Kedar's Speech: "The One Rule That Explains EVERY Middle East War"

Dr. Mordechai Kedar, an Israeli scholar of Arab culture and lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, delivers a compelling lecture in this video (link below), originally published on January 24, 2025, by the channel "Stand Tall Israel." The speech, lasting approximately 47 minutes, focuses on a fundamental cultural "rule" that underpins all Middle Eastern conflicts: the supremacy of tribal loyalty and group identity over individual autonomy, religion, and modern influences. Kedar argues that Western leaders, media, and diplomats repeatedly fail to grasp this rule, leading to misguided policies and unrealistic expectations for peace. Drawing from his expertise in Arabic literature, history, and military intelligence (from 25 years in the IDF), he frames the Middle East as a region torn by three competing "vectors:” Tribal structures rooted in desert survival, Islamic unity, and encroaching modernity. He suggests that these factors are responsible for perpetual instability in the Middle East. These forces explain not only historical wars but also ongoing ones involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and broader Sunni-Shia rivalries. Kedar's delivery is straightforward, emphatic, and laced with rhetorical questions and anecdotes, emphasizing cultural relativism without moral judgment. He stresses that understanding this rule is key to Israel's survival through deterrence rather than idealistic diplomacy.

Contrasting Western and Middle Eastern Worldviews

Kedar opens by highlighting profound cultural differences between the West and the Middle East, setting the stage for why Western approaches to conflict resolution falter. In Western societies, particularly the United States, individualism reigns supreme. Once a person achieves financial independence—through work—they shape their life independently: choosing where to live, whom to befriend or marry, and how to manage daily affairs without reliance on family resources like a parent's credit card or car. Group influence, such as consulting cousins on major decisions, is minimal or nonexistent. Religion plays a marginal role in social evaluations; for instance, people select doctors based on expertise, not faith, and political campaigns (e.g., those of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, both with Jewish family ties) rarely hinge on religious affiliations. Even figures like Orthodox Jew Joe Lieberman or Mormon Mitt Romney faced limited scrutiny over their beliefs.

In stark contrast, Middle Eastern society prioritizes the collective—family, clan, or tribe—over the individual. Life decisions align with group expectations; uncles from both sides must approve marriages, and personal autonomy is surrendered for communal security. This group-centric mindset dominates, except in more Westernized Christian areas. Religion is the paramount criterion for judging others: in Islamic contexts, Muslims are insiders ("one of us"), while non-Muslims—especially Jews—are outsiders destined for rejection or elimination ("go to hell, and if you don't, we'll send you"). Sectarian divides, like Sunni vs. Shia, exacerbate this, turning religious identity into a tool for exclusion.

Kedar attributes U.S. policy failures in the Middle East (e.g., attempts to impose democracy or broker lasting peace) to this cultural blind spot. He introduces the "three vectors" metaphor: imagine a wagon pulled in opposing directions by three horses—tribalism (group loyalty), Islam (religious unity), and modernity (individual freedoms). These forces create chaos, explaining why conflicts persist despite Western interventions.

The Three Vectors and Their Role in Perpetual Conflict

The core of the speech dissects these vectors, rooted in the Middle East's geography, history, and social evolution. Kedar emphasizes that 98% of the region—from Morocco to Iraq, Syria to Yemen—is arid desert, with summer temperatures reaching 50°C (122°F) in the shade. Survival demands constant access to water, turning it into a zero-sum resource. Individuals cannot thrive alone in such harshness; strength lies in groups, leading to the formation of extended families, clans, and tribes bound by blood ties.

Vector 1: Tribalism and the "One Rule" of Loyalty

The "one rule" Kedar unveils is absolute loyalty to the tribe or clan, which supersedes all else and explains every war. In the desert, groups must defend water sources against rivals whose supplies dwindle. Neighbors on the next hill or valley are perpetual enemies, either potential or actual. This fosters strict codes:

• No collaboration with outsiders: Traitors face "tashmis" (left exposed to die in the sun), ensuring internal cohesion.
• Endogamy: Marriages within the clan preserve unity, despite risks like genetic disorders.
• Revenge and balance of power: Attacks demand retaliation to deter future threats—e.g., killing one enemy to avenge a clansman maintains equilibrium. Honor killings of women and girls "wash away the shame" of perceived sexual misconduct with the blood of the unfortunate transgressor.
• Mutual support: Clan members automatically assist each other in crises, covering debts, chores, or business without prompting. This system prevents isolation (e.g., no unnoticed deaths in apartments) but requires surrendering personal freedom.

Kedar views this not as inferior but as a rational adaptation: individualism offers liberty but vulnerability; tribalism trades freedom for unbreakable security. Modern states in the Middle East are artificial impositions on these tribal lines, leading to instability—e.g., Iraq's Sunni-Shia-Kurd divides or Syria's Alawite dominance over Sunnis.

Vector 2: Islam's Attempt to Unify and Its Internal Fractures

Islam, founded by Muhammad in the 7th century, sought to transcend tribalism by uniting Arabs under one God (Allah) and a brotherhood of believers, replacing pagan tribal deities. It succeeded in global expansion and jihad inspiration but failed to eradicate clans. The Sunni-Shia schism, originating in 632 CE over Muhammad's successor (Abu Bakr vs. Ali), mirrors a family feud amplified over centuries. Religious identity fuels conflicts, viewing non-Muslims (especially Jews) as infidels whose presence in "Islamic lands" (like Israel) is illegitimate. Kedar notes Islam's pull toward unity clashes with tribal divisions, creating hybrid wars—e.g., Iran (Shia Persian clan) vs. Saudi Arabia (Sunni Arab tribes), blending sectarian and ethnic rivalries.

Vector 3: Modernity's Disruptive Influence

Modernity entered ~220 years ago with Napoleon's 1798 invasion of Egypt, introducing technology like printing presses and bridges. Innovations like the printing press had long been delayed by clerics fearing uncontrolled ideas.

Muhammad Ali became the de facto ruler of Egypt from 1805 to 1848 after the withdrawal of France. He attempted to modernize Egypt by introducing Western economic, military, and cultural ideas sparking protests from the entrenched religious clerics. Qasim Amin's 1899 book advocated women's education and challenged the hijab, arguing for dignity through work. Skipping ahead to the 21st century, modernity is still seen as Western corruption: prepaid phones give girls secret autonomy, undermining patriarchal control; media and education spread individualism, eroding tribal and religious bonds.

These vectors pull relentlessly: tribalism toward fragmentation, Islam toward theocratic unity, modernity toward secular freedom. Examples include:

• Iran-Saudi tensions: Tribal (Persian-Arab) + religious (Shia-Sunni) + modern (oil-driven economies).
• Israel-Arab conflicts: Jews as an "alien tribe" violating Islamic land claims; Hamas/Hezbollah wars as clan-religious vendettas, where Western peace proposals (e.g., Shimon Peres' "New Middle East") ignore the rule of loyalty.
• Temporary truces (hudna): Peace is granted only to the invincible, not the weak—strength, not morality, deters attacks.

Kedar critiques Western naivety, noting concepts like coexistence fail because tribes/sects reject permanent compromise with "infidels."

Implications for Israel and the Path to Stability

Kedar concludes that Israel thrives by embodying the "one rule"—projecting unbreakable strength and unity to deter enemies. Recent events (as of 2025-2026) illustrate this: Israel's degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, destruction of Iranian air defenses, and exposure of Russia's betrayal of Iran (failing to intervene) have restored fear among adversaries. Iran's proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah) are furious at Tehran's inaction, fracturing alliances. The ongoing war (over 400 days) targets "hybrid" enemies hiding among civilians, but Israel's successes weaken Iran's "ring of fire."

Peace is illusory. Tribes and Islam reject Israel's permanence but temporary acceptance comes from failed eradication attempts (e.g., Egypt, Jordan, UAE after 76 years). A post-January 20, 2026, U.S. administration shift (sympathetic to Iranian dissidents) could accelerate Iran's collapse, dissolving proxy threats. Kedar urges analyzing news through the three vectors: e.g., uprisings as modernity vs. Islam/tribalism clashes.